Optimistic outlook for Q4 and beyond

17 january 2013

Editor’s note: Economic experts suggest that although some caution remains, the overriding message is one of optimism, and the current stability will continue into the strong fourth quarter and economic momentum into 2013.

 

Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist at Credit Agricole CIB

This makes the third quarter the second straight quarter of accelerated growth momentum. In addition, the last month of the quarter brought an acceleration of industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment in year-on-year terms, highlighting the fact that the improvement of economic momentum was particularly strong in September. Clearly, concerns over continued slowdown can now be put to rest.

The data is mostly above consensus and confirms that growth is picking up and that China is not at risk of a hard landing.”

 

Tom Rafferty, London-based analyst for Economist Intelligence Unit

The 7.4 percent growth represents a deceleration from the second quarter, and it is also the worst year-on-year figure. But we see a positive sign for growth in the fourth quarter and the next year. There are other positive signs. The data show that investment and retail sales have picked up. On the whole, we have also seen an increase in per capita disposable income this year, with the increase in minimum wages. On the whole these are positive signs for mid-term economic growth. We do not see any major shift in policy in the fourth quarter.

 

David Laurier, CEO of the Belgium-based environmental analysis provider AppliTek NV

The third quarter growth of 7.4 percent is still a very good number globally. For my company, the outlook for China is still very bright.

China has emerged a lot during the last 10 years. Maybe the expectations are just too high. A growth figure of 6 percent feels more natural to me. From my perspective, the economic recovery will start in (the first or second quarter) of 2013.

 

Chang Jian, economist at Barclays

The GDP growth in the third quarter and better-than-expected September data suggest that China’s economic growth is stabilizing on the back of more accommodative monetary conditions, improving export orders, increasing infrastructure investment, and recovering property market activities.

The sustainability of the export growth remains key to the pace of the near-term recovery, and the Autumn Canton Fair may provide some clues.

Should the September momentum be sustained into the fourth quarter, there would be upside risk to our full-year forecast of 7.5 percent.

Overall, the September data painted a consistent picture of a pickup in domestic activities on the back of recovering domestic and external demand.

 

Ann Lee, a finance and economics professor at New York University, and author of What the US Can Learn from China

I would have expected GDP to come in at slightly higher than 7.5 percent because I think the monetary easing and stimulus earlier in the third quarter would have added to growth. Also, sectors other than manufacturing such as transportation and services are also growing. China’s economy should stabilize or moderately slow down from here, given the uncertainty around the leadership transition.

 

Derek Scissors, senior research fellow at The Heritage Foundation

The year-on-year GDP figure was as expected. Investment excluding real estate was strong. Retail sales were a bit weaker. This is not encouraging for China’s rebalancing.

The year-on-year figures say that GDP growth slowed a bit from the second quarter to the third quarter. However, a more accurate picture, including the quarter-on-quarter growth figures, indicates the opposite: GDP growth was weaker in the first half than the year-on-year figures indicate but a bit stronger in the third