Barclays cuts China GDP growth forecast

17  January 2013

Barclays cut its forecast on China’s GDP growth to 7.5 percent this year from its original 7.9 percent estimate because of the weak August data, the investment bank said in a research note on Monday.

The lackluster August data confirmed that China’s growth momentum remains weak. The bank also cut its GDP growth forecast to 7.6 percent, from 8.4 percent, in 2013.

“The current growth slowdown is a combination of both structural and cyclical changes, and we think 7 to 8 percent growth may become the new ‘normal’,” said Chang Jian, an economist with the bank.

The bank also said that due to the government’s recent measures to boost the economy, including the infrastructure projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the recent modest improvement in credit, China’s economic growth is likely to stabilize in the coming quarters.

“We think these measures should cap the growth deceleration and help China achieve an above 7 percent growth in the coming quarters,” the research note said.

The bank is forecasting a growth of 7.3 percent in the third quarter and 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter.