China’s 2012 GDP to grow 7.7-7.8%

17  January 2013

BEIJING — The Chinese economy will expand between 7.7 percent and 7.8 percent in 2012, surpassing the 7.5 percent growth target set earlier this year, a researcher from the country’s top think tank said.

“Policymakers have taken into account the changes in the domestic and external environments when setting the growth target earlier this year,” said Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Projection Department with the State Information Center, China’s top think tank, in a recent interview with Xinhua.

Although China’s GDP has slowed for nine consecutive quarters, Fan said, the country is still capable of achieving economic growth of between 7.6 percent to 7.8 percent in the July-September period.

The Chinese economy slowed to 7.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, marking the slowest pace of growth in more than three years.

As the government has adopted a series of measures, including hastening the approval of major projects, the economy will begin stabilizing in the second half, Fan said, adding that he expects such measures to play a counter-cyclical role in stimulating the economy.

He noted that the new round of macro control policies is quite different from the 4 trillion yuan ($631.7 billion) stimulus measures rolled out in 2009.

The prime target for the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package was to safeguard growth through proactive fiscal and monetary measures, but the new round of macro control policies has to stabilize economic growth, on the one hand, while preventing a rebound in home prices, on the other, Fan said.

“It will be a little difficult to strike a balance this time around,” he said.

The researcher said he expects economic growth to remain at relatively low levels for a while, and a V-type recovery looks unlikely as policymakers have to make some progress in restructuring the economy.

“At such a stage, it won’t be our best option to blindly pursue double-digit economic growth,” he added.