Analysts downbeat on China’s Q3 growth

17  January 2013

BEIJING — Surveys of Chinese factories have added to a gloomy picture for third-quarter growth in the world’s second-largest economy, which analysts projected will continue moderating.

According to the final reading of the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index released on Saturday, China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the 11th consecutive month in August, though at a slower pace.

The continued weakening of manufacturing activity at home and sluggish global growth convinced many analysts that China’s growth will have continued to ease in the third quarter.

UBS Securities economist Wang Tao forecast growth in the country’s value-added industrial output, a main gauge of industrial production, will slow further to 8.6 percent in September from 8.9 percent in August and 9.2 percent in July.

Wang expects the country’s gross domestic product increase to slow to 7.3 percent in the July-Sept period, while Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of the Industrial Bank, put the forecast at 7.4 percent.

Bank of Communications analysts projected upcoming economic results will show the country’s GDP to have risen 7.5 percent in the third quarter of 2012 but said the growth will rebound to 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

China’s economy grew 7.6 percent in the second quarter, the lowest rate of increase in more than three years. The nation is scheduled to release figures revealing its third-quarter GDP growth on Oct 18.