Analysts show optimism for fourth quarter

17 january 2013

There are strong indications that the slowdown in China’s growth may be reversed in the coming quarter when stimulus measures start to take effect, boosting global confidence, analysts have said.

Yi Gang, China’s central bank deputy governor, pledged to take “appropriate” measures to tame the six-quarter economic slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, on the premise of no harmful consequences.

“The stimulus package this time will be large enough to stabilize growth, but not too large to cause further problems in the future,” Yi said on Sunday, as global financial chiefs gathered in Tokyo for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

It is expected the fourth quarter will enjoy some growth as both monetary and fiscal policies are on track, Chinese economists said.

The quantitative monetary easing is so far working well, as indicated by the rising money supply and long-term credit growth in September, said Sun Junwei, a Chinese economist with HSBC Holdings.

“The filtering-through of monetary easing combined with the scope of faster fiscal spending and acceleration of infrastructure construction, should support a growth recovery in the coming months,” he said. “The third quarter will mark the cyclical bottom of GDP growth.”

The growth rate in the three months leading to October is predicted to be the slowest in seven quarters, and may fall to 7.4 percent, down from the second quarter’s 7.6 percent and the first quarter’s 8.1 percent. The official data will be released on Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The People’s Bank of China has lowered both the benchmark interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio twice this year, increasing market liquidity to boost lending for industrial production and service improvement.

Friday’s statistics showed strongly rebounding monetary growth in September. The broad money supply growth climbed to a 15-month high of 14.8 percent from a year earlier, compared with the 13.5 percent increase in August.

Indicators of a moderate rebound in economic growth are expected to come in the fourth quarter, and therefore monetary policy easing should not be too fast in the fourth quarter, considering the rising inflation pressure, said E Yongjian, a senior economist with the Bank of Communications.

He expected full-year inflation to rise 2.8 percent from 2011 and said it is unlikely the central bank will again reduce interest rates in the last three months of this year.

“We suggest taking a cautious attitude toward further policy easing, but there is space for another cut of reserve requirement ratio of 50 basis points,” he said.

Vice-Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao gave a speech in Tokyo addressing the measures taken to support employment growth and the development of small businesses.